ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022 900 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022 Roslyn remains a formidable hurricane with a symmetrical Central Dense Overcast containing very intense, deep convection. An eye has been occasionally evident on the enhanced IR imagery. Convective banding features are most prevalent over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern semicircle of the system. The current intensity is held at 115 kt in accordance with subjective Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and TAFB. The hurricane has made its expected turn to the north and the initial motion is now near 360/10 kt. The expected steering regime through Sunday remains about the same as before. Roslyn should move around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric high, and to the east of a broad trough near the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north-northeastward motion with further acceleration, bringing the system ashore over the Mexican state of Nayarit on Sunday. The official track forecast is just slightly to the left of, but not significantly different than, the previous NHC prediction. This is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus and in between the GFS and ECMWF tracks which have come into better agreement. Prior to landfall, some increase in southwesterly shear over Roslyn is predicted by the global models. Therefore, slight weakening is possible during the next 12 hours. Nonetheless, given the conducive thermodynamic environment including very warm ocean waters with SSTs of 29 deg C or higher, it is expected that Roslyn will still be near major hurricane intensity when its center crosses the coastline. After landfall, rapid weakening will occur over the mountainous terrain of western Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Roslyn is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast of Mexico tonight and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 20.0N 106.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 21.9N 105.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 24.9N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:25 UTC