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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 22 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Newton has improved this evening, with 
deep convection once again reforming over the low-level circulation 
center. The latest satellite intensity estimates have changed little 
during the past 6 hours, remaining between 35 and 55 knots, and as a 
result the initial intensity will be held at 50 knots.
 
Newton continues to move slightly north of due west at 280/6 kt.  
The cyclone is moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level 
ridge over the south-central U.S. The system is expected to continue 
to track slightly north of due west during the next couple of  days 
as it is steered by this mid-level ridge. Drier environmental air 
should ultimately lead to a collapse in deep convection over the 
weekend, which should allow Newton to be steered by the low-level 
flow by Sunday, with dissipation shortly thereafter. The NHC track 
forecast was nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, and 
lies very close to the multi-model track consensus guidance.

The environmental conditions remain conducive for maintaining deep 
convection during the next day or two, before drier mid-level and 
slightly stronger southerly shear begin to take more of a toll on 
Newton. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength 
tonight, with gradual weakening then expected until dissipation. 
Newton is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Saturday 
night, if not sooner.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 17.9N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 18.2N 110.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 19.4N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 19.8N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 19.7N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 19.3N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg/Jelsema
 
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