ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Madeline Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142022 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 18 2022 Madeline still has an asymmetric convective pattern, with a large burst of deep convection mainly confined to the southwestern quadrant due to deep-layer easterly shear. Visible satellite images also suggest that there are several low-level swirls rotating around a common center. Intensity estimates have not changed since this morning, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Moderate to strong easterly shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days, and Madeline is also forecast to reach the cold ocean wake of former Hurricane Kay by late Monday. There is some chance for slight strengthening before Madeline reaches the cold wake, but overall little change in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours. Weakening is anticipated after that time, and model-simulated satellite imagery indicate that Madeline should lose all of its deep convection, and hence become post-tropical, by 48 hours. The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 335/7 kt. Track model guidance is in good agreement that Madeline will turn west-northwestward on Monday, and then westward by Tuesday night, when the weakening cyclone will come under the influence of lower-level steering winds. The new NHC track forecast, which is just a bit to the southwest of the morning prediction, anticipates that Madeline will turn and move away from the coast of Mexico, including the southern Baja California peninsula, during the next 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from Madeline are expected for portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes through this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.8N 107.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 20.4N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 20.9N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 21.3N 112.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 21/0600Z 21.5N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z 21.6N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 21.4N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:14 UTC