ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132022 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022 Lester's appearance has remained nearly the same since early this morning. The cyclone continues to battle moderate east-northeasterly shear of about 15-20 kt, which is causing the center to remain near, or just east of, its associated deep convection. An 1548 UTC ASCAT overpass showed peak wind vectors of 32 kt. Therefore, the advisory intensity is being held at 35 kt. The storm is now moving a little faster to the northwest, or 310/10 kt. Lester should continue to move in this direction for the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered within the flow between a cyclonic gyre to its west and a ridge over Texas. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to the east following the recent shift in the guidance. Due to the combination of the slight eastward track adjustment and ASCAT verification of tropical-storm-force winds about 70 n mi northeast of the center, the Government of Mexico expanded the Tropical Storm Warning eastward to Puerto Escondido. Based on the latest forecast track, the center of Lester should reach the coastline of Mexico by Saturday afternoon or evening. Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius, the shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist through landfall. Therefore, only gradual intensification is expected during that time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate by Sunday. Because Lester was not able to take advantage of the time it had over water today to strengthen, the latest NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of southern Mexico tonight and Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.3N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 15.1N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.6N 99.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 18.1N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto NNNN
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