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Tropical Storm Lester Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132022
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 16 2022
 
Lester remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center 
occasionally becoming exposed to the east of the deep convection. 
The overall appearance of the storm has changed little since early 
this morning, and the latest subjective and objective Dvorak 
intensity estimates support keeping the advisory intensity at 35 
kt. 

The storm has made its anticipated turn to the northwest and is on 
on a heading of 310/7 kt. Lester should continue to move in this 
direction for the next couple of days with a slight increase in 
forward speed by later today as the cyclone is steered within the 
flow between a cyclonic gyre to its west and a building ridge over 
Texas. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the 
previous one, and is near the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. On this 
track, the center of Lester should reach the coastline of Mexico by 
Saturday afternoon or evening.

Although Lester is within a thermodynamic environment of very high 
atmospheric moisture and over warm waters of of 28-29 degrees 
Celsius, the moderate (15-20 kt) east-northeasterly shear currently 
affecting the cyclone is forecast to persist through landfall. 
Therefore, only gradual intensification is expected during that 
time. After landfall, Lester should rapidly weaken over the rugged 
terrain of western Mexico, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate 
on Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the 
previous one and is close to the various intensity consensus aids. 

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from Lester will reach portions of coastal southern 
Mexico by this evening, increasing in coverage and intensity 
Saturday and Saturday night, spreading farther west on Sunday. This 
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible 
mudslides in areas of higher coastal terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 13.7N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 14.4N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 15.7N  99.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 17.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...ON THE COAST
 48H  18/1200Z 18.7N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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