ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 The organization of Javier has not changed significantly over the past few hours. Satellite infrared imagery indicate that convection is deepest in the western portion of the tropical storm's elongated circulation with an apparent dry slot in the northwest quadrant. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt and is a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening for the next 24 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures, low deep-layer vertical wind shear and sufficient environmental moisture. However, Javier still has a relatively broad circulation, so the NHC forecast only calls for slight strengthening. It should be noted that the peak of the official intensity forecast is now at the top of the model guidance. Beyond a day, the system is predicted to weaken as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier environment. Javier is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt. The reasoning behind the track forecast is unchanged. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north is the primary synoptic feature steering Javier. This ridge is expected to build westward and turn the cyclone to the northwest and west-northwest in the next couple of days. The official forecast has shifted eastward again towards the model consensus aids. Based on the latest forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for Baja California Sur. Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 21.8N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 23.2N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 25.0N 115.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 26.2N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 26.8N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/0600Z 26.9N 123.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1800Z 26.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/1800Z 26.3N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z 25.8N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:10 UTC