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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022
 
The depression is maintaining enough deep convection to keep its 
tropical cyclone status for now, however the convection has had
little, if any, organization for the past 12-18 hours. The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt and is based on earlier scatterometer
data and the most recent SAB Dvorak classification. Easterly shear
of about 20 kt is forecast to continue to plague the system over the
next few days, and gradual weakening is anticipated during that
time. The system is expected to remain over warm water so continued
bursts of convection are likely, but if the convection does not gain
additional organization the system is likely to become a remnant low
at just about anytime within the next 24 hours.
 
The depression has been drifting southwestward over the past day or
so.  A very slow westward or west-southwestward motion is expected
over the next 12 to 24 hours as the system remains within an area
of weak steering flow.  A slightly faster westward to west-
northwestward motion should occur around midweek when the system
is a remnant low.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 17.8N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 17.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 17.6N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 17.7N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/0000Z 17.9N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 18.2N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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