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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022
 
There has been little change in the structure of the tropical
depression since the previous advisory.  The center remains exposed
to the northeast of the associated deep convection due to the
presence of moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear. Since
there has been no change in the system's organization, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt. Some of the objective and subjective
satellite estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS suggest the system could
be slightly stronger, but given the lack of overall organization it
is best to stay on the conservative side until scatterometer data
is potentially available later today.
 
The vertical wind shear affecting the system is forecast to increase
within the next 24 hours, and that is likely to prevent
strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models
suggest bursts of deep convection are likely to continue over the
western portion of the circulation through tonight. After that time,
the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low and gradual
weakening should occur through midweek.
 
The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A low- to
mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to cause
the cyclone to turn westward later today.  As the low weakens it is
forecast to turn west-southwestward within the low-level flow. The
new NHC track forecast is again similar to the previous advisory
and is close to the various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.3N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.5N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.5N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z 18.1N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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