ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The last bit of deep convection near Howard's center faded around the time of this morning's advisory, about 12 hours ago. Since the center is now moving over waters colder than 22 degrees Celsius, it's very unlikely that significant deep convection will reignite, and Howard has therefore degenerated into a post-tropical low. The low is still likely producing gale-force winds, which are estimated to be as high as 40 kt based on a gradual spin down of the circulation and the latest satellite estimates. Gales could continue for another 6-12 hours as the system weakens over cold water, and global models are in general agreement that the remnant low will dissipate in 2-3 days. The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. Howard's remnant circulation is expected to turn westward and slow down a bit during the next 24 hours, continuing that motion until dissipation. The previous forecast lies along the northern edge of the 00z track guidance envelope, and because of that, the new (and final) NHC forecast has been pushed southward, close to the GFS and TVCE consensus solutions. For additional information on the post-tropical low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 24.1N 122.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/1200Z 24.4N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 125.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 24.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 24.4N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:10:08 UTC