ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092022 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 10 2022 The infrared satellite appearance of Howard has continued to degrade this afternoon with little to no deep convection remaining. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB supports lowering the analyzed intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Howard should continue to weaken this evening as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Numerical guidance suggests Howard will not reacquire any sustained deep convection, however, periodic brief pulses of convection are possible over the next 12 - 24 h. The official forecast shows Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone within the next 12 h, and it could happen as soon as this evening. The cyclone should open into a remnant trough by 60 h. Howard continues to move west-northwestward with an initial forward speed of 10 kt. A slight turn to the west is expected over the next two days before the cyclone dissipates. No substantial changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains based on the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 24.3N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 25.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Onderlinde NNNN
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