ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Frank Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072022 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022 Only a tiny region of -45 to -50 degree Celsius cloud top temperatures remain with Frank southeast of its center this morning. In fact, the tropical cyclone appears well on its way to becoming a low-level cloud swirl devoid of any remaining deep convection. Subjective and objective Dvorak classifications range from 30-kt to 45-kt this morning. Absent of any recent scatterometer data, but noting that the passes yesterday afternoon had a large region of greater than 40 kt winds, the initial intensity was held at 40-kt this advisory. Frank should continue to gradually spin down over 20-22 C ocean waters as it moves further into a more stable environment. The meager amount of cold cloud tops near Frank now already do not meet the necessary criteria of a tropical cyclone, and it is likely the storm will become post-tropical later today. Most of the guidance now suggests Frank will open up into a trough by 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast, showing the remnant low dissipating about 300 n mi west of the California coast. Frank is still moving to the northwest at 310/9 kt. Even as Frank becomes more shallow, the low-level steering flow will still enable Frank to recurve between a narrow low-level ridge off of the Baja California peninsula and a prominent deep-layer trough well west of California. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and only slight changes were needed for the latest track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 24.0N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 25.2N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 03/0600Z 27.0N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 28.9N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 31.0N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 32.8N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN
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