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Hurricane Frank Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072022
800 PM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
 
Satellite images indicate that Frank appears to have reached a 
generally steady state. Although the convective banding remains well 
established on the south and east sides, there are pronounced dry 
slots on the system's west side. In addition, the ragged eye feature 
seen occasionally earlier today is no longer evident. There is a 
large spread in the satellite intensity estimates this evening with 
the University of Wisconsin ADT on the low side at 63 kt and 
subjective estimates as high as 90 kt. The initial intensity is held 
at 80 kt based on a blend of that data.
 
Frank is just about out of time to strengthen as it is nearing the 
26 degree C SST isotherm. The hurricane is expected to track over 
increasingly cooler waters during the next few days and move into a 
progressively drier and more stable environment. These factors 
should cause a steady weakening trend, and Frank is now expected to 
become a post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours. This forecast lies a 
little above the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus models. 
 
Frank has been moving steadily to the northwest, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 315/10 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue as the hurricane moves toward a weakness in the
subtropical ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level low off the
California coast. When Frank becomes a shallow and weak remnant low
in a few days, it will likely slow down and turn toward the north in
the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster
and slightly to the right of the previous one, trending toward the
latest consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 18.0N 117.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 20.4N 120.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 23.2N 123.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 24.7N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 26.3N 125.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  04/0000Z 28.8N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0000Z 31.2N 126.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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