ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Darby Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 13 2022 The eye of Darby has become more distinct since the last advisory, suggesting that a little more intensification has occurred, In response, the intensity estimates from various subjective and objective satellite techniques have nudged upward and are currently in the 90-100 kt range. The initial intensity is set at a possibly conservative 95 kt. While Darby is currently in an environment of light shear and decent moisture, the center is over sea surface temperatures of 25-26C. This is expected to cause a slow weakening during the next 24 h. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to encounter moderate to strong westerly shear and move into a very dry air mass, and this combination is likely to cause rapid weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model indicates that the associated convection should dissipate around the 48 h point, with Darby becoming a post-tropical low by 60-72 h. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward through the first 24 h, then shows a somewhat faster weakening than the previous forecast. The global models are in good agreement that the remnants of Darby will weaken to a trough by 96 h, so the forecast continues to call for dissipation by that time. A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Darby should continue to steer the storm generally west-northwestward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. There are only minor adjustments from the previous forecast track, which lies near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.4N 136.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.3N 141.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.7N 143.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 146.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.7N 149.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 152.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
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