ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052022 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Darby has changed little in structure tonight. Microwave imagery from SSMIS at 0147 UTC revealed a small inner core with a primary band to the south of the center. The storm continues to generate a well-defined upper-level outflow and some bursts of convection with -80 degrees C or colder cloud top temperatures near the center on geostationary satellite images. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt for this advisory based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB. Convective organization appears to have stalled in the past few hours, possibly due to some drier mid-level humidities, and as a result there has been no apparent change in intensity. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening in the next couple days and model guidance indicates Darby will intensify, possibly into a hurricane. The system is predicted be over cooler ocean surface temperatures and entering a drier environment within 72 hours which should lead to weakening for the remainder of the forecast period. The official NHC intensity prediction is above most of model guidance for the first couple of days and then is blended into the consensus for the rest of forecast. The tropical storm is moving westward at 13 kt and it is being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. This motion is expected to continue at a slightly slower forward speed for the next couple of days. In 3-4 days, Darby should reach a weakness in the ridge and turn west-northwestward to northwestward. The official NHC track forecast is a bit slower than the previous one, and it remains close to the TVCE and HCCA model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.4N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 14.3N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 14.3N 123.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 14.6N 125.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 14.9N 128.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 15.4N 130.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 18.1N 139.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch/Bucci NNNN
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