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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022

Deep convection associated with Bonnie has decreased over the past 
several hours, with only a small area of convection remaining in 
the northeastern quadrant.  The various satellite intensity 
estimates are in the 30-55 kt range, and based on these and the 
convective trends the initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt.

Bonnie should continue to weaken as it moves over cool sea surface 
temperatures and as it ingests a drier air mass.  The system is 
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 h, and the global 
models are in good agreement that the system will weaken to a 
trough by 60 h.  The new intensity forecast has some minor 
adjustments from the previous forecast.

The initial motion is now 280/17 kt.  Bonnie or its remnants should 
move quickly westward in the low-level trade winds until the 
system dissipates.  The new forecast track is in the center of the 
tightly-clustered track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0900Z 19.3N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 19.5N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 19.6N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1800Z 19.6N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z 19.6N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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