ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022 Bonnie's center remains embedded beneath a small Central Dense Overcast which hasn't really shrunk any further in size during the day. That said, satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, and the estimated initial intensity of 55 kt is close to the Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a 1519 UTC SATCON estimate. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds around 50 kt, which also supports an intensity of 55 kt given the instrument's low resolution and Bonnie's small size. Sea surface temperatures below the storm are now 24 to 25 degrees Celsius and will continue to get colder over the next day or two while the atmosphere becomes more stable. Therefore, Bonnie's deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours, which is when it's shown becoming post-tropical in the forecast. Winds will continue to gradually decrease, and the system is expected to dissipate in 3 days, if not sooner. The current motion is north of due west, or 280/16 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to keep Bonnie on a quick westward track at 15 to 20 kt during the next couple of days until dissipation. The NHC track forecast was nudged southward after 24 hours to fall closer to the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but that update is fairly negligible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.6N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 19.3N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 10/0600Z 19.4N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 19.4N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0600Z 19.4N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:53 UTC