ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 07 2022 Bonnie's satellite presentation has improved since this morning with the formation of a well-defined 15-n mi-wide eye and cloud tops as cold as -70 to -75 degrees Celsius. The hurricane has seemingly not weakened, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt as a blend of Dvorak estimates of 5.0 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Bonnie is forecast to move over increasingly cooler waters and into a drier, more stable atmosphere within the next day or so, and those factors should induce a resumption of weakening. Given the hurricane's improved structure, the official intensity forecast is a little higher than the IVCN consensus at 12 hours, but then falls in line with the consensus guidance after that time. Bonnie could lose all organized deep convection by Saturday, and it is therefore shown as a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. The post-tropical low is expected to degenerate into a trough by day 4 (Monday). The initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest (285/13 kt). The track guidance is more tightly packed than normal, and there is high confidence that Bonnie will turn westward and accelerate tonight, reaching its fastest motion Friday night. The weakening low is expected to continue on a quick westward track south of the low-level ridge until it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is right on top of the previous prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.7N 115.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.1N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 10/0600Z 19.8N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 10/1800Z 19.9N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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