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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much since
this morning.  At times, the small eye has become a little more
distinct and warmer in infrared satellite pictures, but then
becomes cloud filled.  This has led to a waffling of subjective
Dvorak estimates between about T4.5 and T5.0 depending on the
infrared eye temperature of each picture.  Objective numbers
remain lower, but have increased somewhat today.  The initial
intensity is maintained at 90 kt, and is based on the latest
SAB Dvorak classification.  Recent scatterometer data have helped
confirm the 34- and 50-kt wind radii.
 
Bonnie will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures later tonight and into a drier and more stable
environment which is likely to begin the weakening process.
After that time, a faster rate of filling is forecast as Bonnie
moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures.  The cyclone is
forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and dissipate
by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the lower LGEM guidance.
 
Bonnie is moving on a motion between west and west-northwest at
about 10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should
continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during
the next couple of days.  A faster and more westward motion is
likely by 72 hours as Bonnie weakens and is steered by the low level
trade wind flow.  The new forecast is essentially an update of the
previous advisory and it lies closest to a blend of the latest 
GFS and ECMWF tracks.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 16.5N 110.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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