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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022
 
Bonnie continues to strengthen and it has a become a fairly well 
organized hurricane. Visible satellite images show a distinct eye 
and inner core, and outer bands continue to become better 
established. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are 4.5/77 kt 
and 5.0/90 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and the initial 
intensity is nudged up to 85 kt based on that data.
 
Bonnie has been on a steady strengthening trend since it emerged 
over the eastern Pacific a couple of days ago, and it could 
strengthen some more through tonight. Although none of the 
intensity models show Bonnie reaching major hurricane status, it 
seems like a possibility given recent trends. However, by early 
Tuesday, the models suggest that the intensification trend will 
likely plateau as northeasterly shear is expected to increase to the 
15-20 kt range. The shear is expected to let up beginning Wednesday, 
but Bonnie will be tracking over progressively cooler waters, 
especially late in the period. The net result seems to suggest 
little change in strength from 12-72 hours, followed by steady 
weakening once Bonnie moves over sub 26C waters and into a drier 
air mass in about 4 days. This forecast lies at the high end of the 
guidance in the short term, but is near the consensus aids beyond 48 
hours.
 
The hurricane is moving westward at 15 kt on the south-southwest
side of a deep-layer ridge. Since the subtropical ridge is
expected to build westward, this should keep Bonnie on a west to
west-northwest path during the next several days. There is some
speed, or along-track, differences in the models, but they all show
a similar theme. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and near the various consensus models.
 
Although the core of Bonnie is expected to remain well south of
Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will continue
to affect southwestern Mexico for another day or two.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 13.9N 100.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.1N 104.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 16.1N 111.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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