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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
 
Recent scatterometer data suggest that Celia's surface circulation
is stretched from northeast to southwest, and it's possible that the
center is re-forming closer to the deep convection.  Tropical-storm-
force winds are confined to the southwestern quadrant (within the
convection), and the least-questionable of the two ASCAT passes
suggests that peak winds are near 40 kt.  This is a little higher
than the subjective Dvorak estimates but equal to the latest
UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.
 
Celia appears to have turned toward the west-northwest, and with
the center being tugged westward by the convection, has sped up a
little bit with a motion of 285/13 kt.  A strong subtropical ridge
centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to
keep Celia on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next 5 days,
with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through Friday.
While the UKMET has come closer in line with the other models on
this cycle, the HWRF remains a southern outlier, likely because it
is showing more immediate intensification to a hurricane within 24
hours.  This scenario does not appear reasonable given the current
shear conditions, and the NHC forecast remains farther north,
closer to the model consensus aids and the 1500 UTC forecast.
 
Moderate-to-strong shear from the east-northeast is likely to
continue affecting Celia for the next 36 hours or so.  Some
continued gradual strengthening is still possible, however, and the
NHC forecast is at the low end of the intensity guidance during
that period. After 36 hours, the official forecast is closer to the
model consensus aids ICON and HCCA as deep-layer shear decreases
and SSTs remain above 26C, and Celia is forecast to become a
hurricane by Thursday.  Some weakening is anticipated over the
weekend once Celia reaches sub-26C ocean waters.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 12.5N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 13.0N 102.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 15.3N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 16.0N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 16.6N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 19.2N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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