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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022
 
Celia is a very weak tropical cyclone.  Although some sporadic deep
convection has redeveloped within its small circulation, this
activity is not well organized near the center and continues to be 
displaced westward by strong shear.  The intensity estimate remains 
at 25 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, 
however a scatterometer pass over the system and a nearby ship 
report from a few hours ago suggests that this may be a generous 
estimate.
 
The cyclone has begun to move a little faster toward the west and 
the initial motion estimate is 270/6 kt.  A faster motion toward the 
west-southwest is anticipated for the next 48 hours or so while a 
mid-level ridge builds to the north.  Later in the forecast period, 
Celia should turn to the west and west-northwest on the southwest 
side of the ridge.  The NHC track forecast is only slightly south of 
the previous one and close to the solution of the latest corrected 
consensus, HCCA.

Dynamical guidance indicates that strong easterly shear, associated 
with an upper-level high near southeastern Mexico, should continue 
to prevail over Celia for the next couple of days and prevent 
intensification.  Later in the forecast period, it is anticipated 
that the shear will abate somewhat and allow the system to 
strengthen.  The official intensity forecast follows this reasoning 
and is close to the latest LGEM guidance.  It should be noted, 
however, that the hostile dynamical environment in the short term 
could cause Celia to at least temporarily lose its status as a 
tropical cyclone.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 13.0N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 12.8N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 12.2N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 11.8N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 11.9N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 12.4N  99.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 13.0N 101.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/0600Z 14.2N 104.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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