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TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022
0300 UTC WED JUN 15 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 102.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 103.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.8N 106.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N 108.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.9N 110.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.2N 114.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 102.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/HOGSETT
 
 
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