ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that Blas has been unable to produce organized deep convection near its center for almost 24 h. Although a couple of sporadic bursts of convection have occurred to its north this morning, this is not deemed enough to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone. Since the system has degenerated into a remnant low, this will be the final NHC advisory on Blas. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB. The remnant low is moving westward at 275/4 kt, and it is forecast to continue moving slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of days. This will bring the system over cooler waters and into a drier mid-level environment with increasing deep-layer southerly shear. Therefore, the remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and open into a trough by Wednesday. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1200Z 19.6N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0000Z 19.8N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1200Z 19.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:47 UTC