ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that Blas has lost any organized deep convection, with only a few small blobs of activity well northeast of the center. Dvorak estimates still support keeping Blas a tropical storm for this advisory. The cyclone should not be long for this world due to the continuing influences of dry air and cool waters. Most likely, Blas will weaken into a tropical depression early Monday and a convection-free remnant low by Monday afternoon. This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Blas is moving slowly westward tonight at around 4 kt. The storm should creep westward for the next couple of days within the weak low-level trade flow. The global models generally show Blas degenerating into a trough on day 3, so the dissipation time has been moved up to 60 h. The track forecast is very close to the previous one and the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 19.1N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/0000Z 19.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z 19.7N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:47 UTC