ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Deep convection has been withering away from the circulation of Blas this afternoon, and only a few broken convective bands remain to the north and northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 34 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, near the low end of the satellite estimates, given the degraded appearance of the storm this afternoon. Blas is already over cool waters, and even cooler waters along its future track plus dry and stable air should cause the system to further decay. The NHC forecast shows Blas becoming a remnant low in 24 hours, but this could occur sooner if the current trends continue. The system is forecast to completely dissipate in a few days. The storm has been moving very slowly and erratically throughout the day. It is unclear if the center has also reformed a little to the east this afternoon. Regardless, the overall motion has been a northwestward drift. A slow west to west-northwest motion within the low-level flow is expected to resume soon and continue until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.1N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.2N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.3N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0600Z 19.4N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z 19.6N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0600Z 19.9N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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