ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 300 AM MDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Blas' cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate rapidly this morning. The conventional satellite imagery and microwave presentations show what remains of the deep convection is confined to a small area in the southwest quadrant. The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt and is based on a blend of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. However, this estimate could be a bit generous given the recent METOP-B scatterometer pass that showed peak winds of 40 to 45 kt. The 20 kt of northeasterly shear weakening Blas is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours or so. By that time, however, the cyclone should be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a less thermodynamically favorable air mass. The global models and the statistical intensity guidance agree with Blas degenerating into a remnant low early next week, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Blas is likely being steered by the weaker low-level trades and is moving west-northwestward or 285/5 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue until it opens into a trough of low pressure around the middle of next week. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the right of the previous one and lies close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. While Blas weakens and moves farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells that are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula should subside by early next week. These conditions, however, are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 17.8N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.1N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 18.5N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 18.5N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 19.3N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2022 12:09:46 UTC