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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
0900 UTC WED OCT 12 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO ROCA PARTIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  94.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  30SE  50SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N  94.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N  94.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.7N  95.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.7N  95.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.9N  95.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.2N  95.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N  95.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N  96.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N  94.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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