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Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 PM AST Wed Oct 05 2022
 
Deep convection had been stripped away well to the northeast of the 
depression's low-level center for much of the morning. Just 
recently, there has been a small burst of convection occurring 
nearer to the center. The Dvorak intensity estimates have changed 
little from the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial advisory 
remains 30 kt. Persistent, strong southwesterly shear and dry air 
entrainment should cause the depression to struggle to maintain 
organized deep convection, and the system is forecast to become a 
remnant low on Thursday. Based on some of the global model pressure 
fields, it is possible that the surface low may become ill-defined 
by Thursday as well, if not shortly thereafter. There was no change 
to the NHC intensity forecast from the previous one. 

After wobbling westward for a few hours this morning, the depression 
has resumed a west-northwestward motion, or 300/9 kt. This general 
motion is expected to continue until the system dissipates in a 
couple of days as it remains to the south-southwest of a subtropical 
ridge. The latest NHC track forecast was little changed from the 
previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 16.3N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 17.1N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 18.2N  35.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 19.0N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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