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TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  72.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  72.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  71.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.7N  73.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.1N  76.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N  78.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.6N  80.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.3N  81.5W...NEAR GRAND CAYMAN
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N  82.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 24.9N  83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N  82.0W...OVER FLORIDA
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  72.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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