ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042022
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022
 
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images
indicate that the disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico
remains disorganized.  Flight-level wind data confirms that the 
system is still a surface trough that is not far offshore of the 
Gulf coast of Mexico.  It should be noted that the initial position 
in the advisory is based on extrapolation of the mid-level center.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the aircraft data and
Dvorak estimates.
 
The chances of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear
to be decreasing.  Regardless of the system's status, the overall
impacts are expected to be the same.  Winds to tropical storm force
and heavy rains are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico
and southern Texas later today and continue into Sunday.  After the
system moves inland, quick weakening is expected and the
disturbance is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night over southern
Texas.
 
The overall envelope of the shower and thunderstorm activity is 
moving northwestward at about 11 kt.  This motion is expected to 
continue until the system dissipates in 24 to 36 hours.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this afternoon and evening,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast
of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and
Nuevo Leon, today.  This rainfall may produce flash flooding.
Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Sunday
morning, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood
impacts.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 23.6N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  21/0000Z 25.1N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  21/1200Z 27.0N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
 
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