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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0900 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA LATER TODAY.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  79.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  79.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  78.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.3N  81.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.3N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N  86.5W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.7N  89.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.4N  91.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.3N  94.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 100.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N  79.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 01/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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