ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021 100 AM PST Tue Nov 09 2021 Satellite classifications and recent scatterometer surface wind data indicate that Sandra is barely hanging on a tropical cyclone. The closest convection, which has been waning over the past few hours, is located about 75 nmi east of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. That distance barely meets the Dvorak criteria for classifying Sandra as a tropical depression. The intensity has been lowered to 25 kt based on 0235Z ASCAT-A scatterometer data that revealed a few 25-kt surface wind vectors located about 50 nmi north of the cyclone's center. Additional weakening is anticipated due to the continued combination of strong southerly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt and intrusions of dry mid-level air. As a result, Sandra is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday. Sandra is now moving a little south of due west, or 260/12 kt. A strong ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep Sandra moving westward to west-southwestward through Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the middle of the various consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.8N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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