ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021 700 AM PST Mon Nov 08 2021 Conventional satellite imagery and a 1206 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicate that Sandra's less-defined surface circulation remains sheared to the southwest of the warming cloud top convective mass. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from the previous 6 hr estimates, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. UW-CIMSS shear analysis and the statistical SHIPS models (ECMWF and GFS) indicate that the 15-20 kt of southwesterly shear will persist and increase in magnitude by Tuesday evening while the surrounding thermodynamic environment gradually becomes more stable. Given these current and predicted inhibiting factors, Sandra is forecast to become a depression by this evening, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday evening. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and is based on the the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus model and agrees with the GFS and ECMWF global model solutions. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/6 kt. A subtropical ridge located to the north of Sandra should steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest through this evening. Through the remainder of the forecast, the global models show the aforementioned low-to mid-level ridge building slightly toward the northwest of Sandra which should cause the cyclone to turn toward the west by early Tuesday. The official track forecast follows suit and is once again adjusted a bit toward the left of the previous forecast and is nudged closer to the TCVE simple multi-model forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.0N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 15.1N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 14.3N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:15 UTC