ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 05 2021 The depression remains weak and disheveled. Satellite images show disorganized and transient patches of deep convection surrounding the center, and the cloud pattern has generally changed little for much of the day. The initial intensity is again held at 30 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Dry and stable air, partly from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, continues to entrain into the circulation, which is likely the reason why the system has been struggling. Despite relatively low wind shear, continued stable air should prevent strengthening in the short term. In fact, the depression could even degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. By early next week, however, the system is forecast to move into a more favorable environment, and gradual strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and in line with the majority of the normally skillful models. The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 10 kt. This motion should continue through Saturday due to the influence of strong northeasterly low-level flow funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. From Sunday through the middle of next week, a slightly faster westward motion is forecast as a mid-level ridge becomes well established to the north of the cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is a touch to the south of the previous one, trending toward a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast is slightly south of the consensus aids, which could be biased to the north due to the UKMET, which is well north of the other models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 8.9N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 8.7N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 8.4N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 8.4N 100.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 9.6N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 10.4N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 10.8N 117.8W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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