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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
 
...RICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 101.3W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 101.3 West. Rick is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue this morning.  A turn to the 
north-northwest is expected to begin later today or tonight.
On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast 
of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast through Sunday,
and Rick is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting
Saturday night. This will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely 
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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