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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
 
...RICK STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 101.3W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required tonight or tomorrow morning for portions of the current
watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 101.3 West.  Rick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn to
the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
motion beginning by Saturday night.  On the forecast track, the
system would be approaching the coast of southwestern Mexico late
this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Rick
is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick will produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated
storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday
night.  This will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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