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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
 
...RICK CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE MEXICAN COAST...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WARNING AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 101.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 101.6 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slightly faster motion 
toward the north or north-northwest is expected over the next
day or so.  On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach
the coast of Mexico through tonight and make landfall on the coast
of Mexico within the hurricane warning area by late Monday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible as Rick nears the coast of
Mexico.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is
forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern
Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.
 
Rick is a compact tropical cyclone.  Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).
A Mexican Navy observing station in Puerto Vicente in the state of
Guerrero recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
now occurring within the Hurricane Warning area.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin inside a portion of the Tropical
Storm Warning areas within the next couple of hours.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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