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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
 
...RICK MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 
hours.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the 
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, 
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the 
next 12 to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located 
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.7 West.  Rick is moving 
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slightly faster motion 
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or 
so.  On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the 
coast of Mexico through tonight and make landfall on the coast of 
Mexico within the hurricane warning area Monday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight strengthening is possible as Rick nears the 
coast of Mexico.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected within the next couple of hours.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin inside a portion of the Tropical Storm
Warning areas within the next couple of hours.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday.  This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
 
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