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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
 
...RICK MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 102.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 102.0 West. Rick is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow motion 
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Rick will
approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night, and make 
landfall on the coast of Mexico late Sunday night or on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  While Rick has strengthened little during the past several
hours, it is expected to strengthen tonight and become a major 
hurricane on Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday
afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with 
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of 
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through 
Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and 
mudslides
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early next week. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN