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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
 
...RICK EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 101.3W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 101.3 West. Rick is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn to
the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a north-northwestward
motion beginning by Saturday night.  On the forecast track, the
center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and
Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid strengthening is forecast through Sunday, 
and Rick is expected to become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday 
night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting
Saturday night. This will likely produce flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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