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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rick Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RICK...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 101.0W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions
of the southwestern coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Punta San
Telmo, and a Tropical Storm Watch from east of Zihuatanejo to
Tecpan de Galeana and from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Zihuatanejo to Tecpan de Galeana
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be
required tonight or tomorrow morning for portions of the current
watch area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rick was 
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 101.0 West.  Rick is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn to 
the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a 
north-northwestward motion beginning by Saturday night.  On the 
forecast track, the system would be approaching the coast of 
southwestern Mexico late this weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Rick 
is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Sunday afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant 
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of 
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.  
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick will produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated 
storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the 
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima starting Saturday 
night.  This will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico beginning by late Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
 
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