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TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
0900 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH EASTWARD
TO TECPAN DE GALEANA AND HAS ALSO EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH EASTWARD TO ACAPULCO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  45SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 101.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.6N 101.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 102.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 103.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.0N 104.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 101.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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