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TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152021
0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED 
LATER TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 108.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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