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BULLETIN
Hurricane Nora Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142021
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021
 
...NORA NEAR MAZATLAN ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SINALOA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 106.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Altata Mexico
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located 
near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.4 West. Nora is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general 
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slower 
northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday.  Nora is forecast to 
move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early 
this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the 
forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within 
the next day or so.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as 
the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico.  However, 
rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner 
than forecast.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane
Warning area through this evening.  Hurricane conditions are 
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday.  Tropical storm 
conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in 
mainland Mexico beginning later today, and are possible within the 
Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
RAINFALL:  Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4
inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through Monday.
 
Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima 
to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf 
of California.  Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 
20 inches is possible.  This rainfall will produce life-threatening 
flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum 
amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur.
 
Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated
with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for
scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and
central Rockies.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane 
warning area.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by 
large and destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast
of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California
Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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