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HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142021
2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND HURRICANE WATCH NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA...MEXICO...TO A
HURRICANE WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO ALTATA MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTATA TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA.  ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS
TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 105.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 105.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.9N 106.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.8N 108.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.6N 109.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.6N 110.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 29.4N 110.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 105.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 29/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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