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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
 
There has been little notable change in Linda's structure on 
satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to possess annular 
characteristics, with a well-defined warm eye up to +15 C 
surrounded by a ring of -60 to -65 C cloud top temperatures 
associated with the eyewall. The eyewall was also well-defined on a 
recent 1003 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass. The most recent subjective 
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB were T5.5/102 kt and 
T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T5.1/92 kt. 
Thus, Linda is being maintained as a 90-kt hurricane for this 
advisory, though this might be a bit on the conservative side. 

The initial motion estimate continues off to the west-southeast, at 
255/8 kt. The most recent track forecast is mostly just an update of 
the previous one. Linda is expected to gradually make a rightward 
turn from the west-southwest to the west-northwest as a strong 
mid-level ridge to the north shifts its orientation. The latest NHC 
track forecast remains is good agreement with the track consensus 
guidance, blending the TVCN and HCCA aids. 

Linda remains in a very low wind shear environment, with SHIPS 
guidance diagnosing less than 5-kt of shear over the hurricane 
currently. Even though sea-surface temperatures remain only 
marginally warm along the Linda's forecast track, its continued 
annular structure argues for only very gradual weakening over the 
next 48 hours. Afterwards, Linda will cross over the 26 C isotherm 
into cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is anticipated 
after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast over the first 
couple of days remains higher than the majority of the model 
guidance, and is closest to the ECMWF forecast. After Linda begins 
to move over cooler waters in 60 h, the intensity forecast is 
brought back down towards the intensity consensus. At the end of the 
forecast period, Linda is expected to become a post-tropical gale 
once deep organized convection ceases, as suggested by the GFS and 
ECMWF simulated brightness temperature at that time frame.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
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Forecaster Papin/Brennan
 
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