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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
300 PM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021
 
Linda has become an impressive looking hurricane this afternoon. The
eye that first became evident on geostationary satellite imagery
this morning has continued to clear out and warm while the
surrounding cold convection associated with the eyewall wraps around
the eye. The convective structure on microwave imagery has also
improved, with a distinct eye and closed eyewall apparent in an
earlier 1417 UTC SSMIS pass. The 1800 UTC subjective and objective
Dvorak estimates were in unanimous agreement with T5.5/102 kt
provided by SAB, TAFB, and ADT sources. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been increased to 100 kt this advisory, making Linda a
major hurricane.
 
Linda continues to move steadily to the west-northwest, at 300/12
kt. The track philosophy has not changed much over the past 24
hours. A mid- to upper-level ridge currently centered over the
southwestern United States is expected to expand westward, building
in to the northwest of the hurricane. This evolution should result
in Lisa's motion bending left, first to the west, and then to the
west-southwest over the next 2-3 days. The track guidance remains
tightly clustered near and just slightly poleward of the previous
forecast track. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged just
slightly northward over the first few days, but is nearly on top of
the previous forecast by the end of the period.
 
Linda has rapidly intensified, with a 35-kt increase over the past
24 hours, and the hurricane still has an opportunity to intensify a
bit more over the next 12 hours. After 24 hours, Linda will begin to
cross over gradually decreasing sea-surface temperatures and into a
and drier mid-level environment. These factors should lead to
gradual weakening. One fly in the ointment is that the shear
diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is expected to remain low and easterly
while sea-surface temperatures remain between 26-27 C through 60
hours. Both the ECMWF and HWRF simulated brightness temperatures
during that time suggest that Linda could develop a stable annular
structure, which often results in a slower than expected weakening
rate. For this reason, the latest intensity forecast only shows
gradual weakening through 60 hours, which is a bit above the HCCA
consensus aid. More rapid weakening is likely at the end of the
forecast period when Linda will move over sub 25 C water.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 17.5N 112.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 18.2N 114.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 18.9N 116.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 19.2N 119.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 19.1N 121.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  16/0600Z 18.7N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 18.2N 125.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 17.9N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan
 
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