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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
 
There hasn't been much change to Linda's structure since this 
morning.  The hurricane's center is embedded within a small Central 
Dense Overcast, and a dimple is evident in visible satellite images 
where an eye would be likely to form.  For the most part, satellite 
intensity estimates have not changed from this morning, and a 1550 
UTC ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds in the 55-60 kt range.  Given 
that instrument's typical undersampling, especially for a small 
cyclone, the 65-kt initial intensity still seems appropriate.

Linda is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, to the 
south of a mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico.  
This ridge, and a stronger mid-level high developing over the 
western United States, are expected to continue driving Linda 
toward the west-northwest for the next 2-3 days.  By days 4 and 5, 
another mid-level high is forecast to develop between Hawaii and 
Alaska, and that feature is likely to block Linda's northward 
progress, and possibly even cause a south-of-due-west motion by the 
end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is in good 
agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has 
been nudged southward mainly on days 4 and 5.  It should be noted 
that this new forecast is not as far south as several of the track 
models, and additional southward adjustments may be required in 
subsequent forecasts.

Various shear analyses suggest that the northerly shear affecting 
Linda may have decreased slightly, with the magnitude now on the 
order of 10-15 kt.  SHIPS diagnostics indicate that this level of 
shear is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so, and then it
could decrease further and enable some gradual strengthening.  
Models generally show Linda's intensity peaking and leveling off in 
the 36-60 hour window.  After 60 hours, Linda is expected to move 
into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, highlighted by 
colder sea surface temperatures and drier, more stable air, and 
weakening is therefore shown on days 3-5.  One important note is 
that further southward shifts in the forecast track would keep 
Linda over warmer waters and potentially slow the cyclone's 
weakening trend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 15.3N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 16.0N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 17.0N 112.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 17.9N 114.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 18.7N 116.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 19.0N 120.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 18.6N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 18.5N 128.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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