Tropical Depression TWELVE-E (Text)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
The depression is slowly getting better organized, with deep 
convection becoming a bit more concentrated. However, the system 
appears to be undergoing moderate to strong northerly shear, which 
is keeping this convection mainly confined to the southern portion 
of the cyclone's circulation. The initial intensity is being held 
at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak T-number 
from TAFB.
The estimated motion of the depression is 295/9 kt. The cyclone is 
expected to turn westward by Wednesday as a ridge builds to its 
north, and then resume a west-northwestward motion by late this week 
as it begins to move along the southwestern periphery of this ridge. 
This track is roughly parallel to, but well offshore of, the 
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next couple of days. 
Thereafter, the depression is forecast to move away from the coast 
of Mexico. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the 
previous one, and lies near the consensus guidance tracks.
The depression is within a moist, unstable environment with ample 
oceanic heat content to fuel strengthening during the next few days. 
However, ongoing northerly vertical wind shear will likely slow the 
rate of intensification of this system over the next day or so. The 
shear is forecast to diminish somewhat after 24 h, which should 
allow for a faster rate of intensification for a couple of days. 
Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to reach cooler 
waters, which should begin to weaken the system. The official NHC 
intensity forecast is near the IVCN consensus through 60 h, and is 
then near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA thereafter. Based on 
this forecast, the depression should become a tropical storm by 
tonight and a hurricane on Thursday.
INIT  10/1500Z 13.4N 101.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 14.0N 102.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 14.5N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 14.9N 107.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 15.8N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 18.4N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
Forecaster Latto

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:02 UTC