ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Ignacio Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 Strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 25 kt continues across Ignacio, with only small cluster of weakening thunderstorms located west of the fully exposed low-level circulation center. Cloud tops have been steadily warming since the previous advisory, and cloud-top temperatures are now barely -55C. With the shear forecast to continue to increase while Ignacio moves over sub-26-deg-C sea-surface temperatures by this afternoon, regeneration of significant deep convection near the center appears highly unlikely. As a result, Ignacio is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system by this evening, if not sooner, with dissipation expected on Wednesday. The initial motion estimate is 335/05 kt. As Ignacio weakens further and becomes more vertically shallow, the cyclone is expected to meander within weak, low-level steering currents until the system dissipates by 36 hours, if not earlier. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the tightly clustered simple- and corrected- consensus models, except for the earlier dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 20.5N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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